Predictions '09: Detroit Tigers

Prior to the 2008 season, Detroit made a deal with the Florida Marlins in the off-season that brought in Miguel Cabrera and starting pitcher Dontrelle Willis. Most baseball fans thought that the Tigers were poised to dominate teams with an explosive offense top to bottom. I had no doubt in my mind that they would be in the playoffs. But low and behold, the Tigers finished dead last in the AL Central with a record of 74-88. What happened? Its easy: Detroit forgot that solid pitching wins games. Their starting pitching was horrific. Justin Verlander had a 4.84 ERA in 33 starts, leading some to wonder if his arm is toast after 2 excellent seasons. Dontrelle Willis didn't win a game for them, and had injury problems. Jeremy Bonderman suffered with shoulder issues. The only pitcher who had success was rookie Armando Galarraga, posting a 3.73 ERA in 28 starts. Other than Galaragga, their team pretty much looks the same (except for Pudge Rodriguez being gone). The dynamic offense was inconsistent last year, but everyone can agree that their lineup is still a force to be reckoned with. Brandon Lyon comes in as the new closer, but he posted an ERA above 9.00 with Arizona last year after the allstar break. The rest of the bullpen is pretty bad, which is why Detroit won't be there in October.

Highlights: It took a little bit of time for Miguel Cabrera to figure out AL pitching at the beginning of the season, and his batting average for the year was just under .300 for the first time since 2004. His power numbers didn't suffer though, as he hit 37 long balls and 127 RBIs. Expect him to anchor the lineup with a monsterous year.

Question Mark: Will the starting pitching show up for 2009? At first glance the rotation looks good, filled with some solid names in Verlander, Willis, and Bonderman. But with Bonderman's shoulder, Willis' inconsistency, and Verlander's poor 2008 campaign it doesn't look good. Will Galarraga duplicate his 2008 success in '09?

Keys to Success: For boasting one of the most impressive looking lineups last year, the Tigers were shutout way too many times. The lineup will need to produce consistently to keep them in ball games. The fifth starter will likely be Rick Porcello, the Tigers' first round pick in 2007. They dished out $11 million (WOW) to this kid, and they hope he can be an innings-eater in '09. Watch for this guy.

Prediction: 4th place

Predictions '09: Kansas City Royals

After finishing dead last in the AL Central 4 years in a row, the Kansas City Royals managed to break that trend last year...by finishing in 4th place above the disappointing Detroit Tigers. The Royals have had a rough time finding their groove in this decade, hurt by lackluster starting pitching and a weak fan base. $250 million in renovations to the stadium hope to bring in more of those Kansas City football lovers. Seeing this commitment from a franchise that has been poor over the last handful of years in encouraging. I can definitely see signs of improvement from their pitching staff and their lineup is fairly good. They locked down 25-year old pitcher Zack Greinke to a 4 year deal, and still retain Gil Meche as their ace. 25-year old Kyle Davies (who hasn't given up a run thus far in spring training) has been given the third spot in the rotation. In those three pitchers they have a solid top of the rotation, but the rest of the rotation is the question. On the offensive side, they added Coco Crisp to take over center field duty and give them a solid leadoff man. They also added Mike Jacobs, who hit 32 HRs and 93 RBIs with the Marlins last year. To add to that, they still have Jose Guillen and breakout candidate Billy Butler. The bullpen features young allstar closer Joakim Soria, but it falls off after that. They re-signed Kyle Farnsworth, but he is a mediocre setup man at best.

Highlights: Gil Meche and Zack Greinke did a great job last year, both posting sub 4.00 ERAs. Kyle Davies found success in 21 starts last year and hopes to build on that success with a full year of work. The rotation looks promising.

Question Mark: The bullpen is weak. Almost every baseball fan should know the importance of a strong bullpen, something the Royals don't have. Joakim Soria will continue his dominance in the closer role, but how will they get the ball to him in the 9th?

Keys to success: The Royals will obviously have to stay healthy to succeed. The top of their lineup is impressive and will really help, especially if Billy Butler has a breakout year. The back end of the rotation will need to step up. Horacio Ramirez, Sidney Ponson, and Brian Bannister will be fighting for the last two spots of the rotation. And of course, the bullpen will need to hold up. The Royals will have a rough time climbing the AL Central this year. The division isn't particularly strong, but teams such as the Tigers and Indians expect to have bounce-back years after a terrible 2008. Where does this leave the Royals? Probably the cellar, but expect them to improve on last season.

Prediction: 5th place

Predictions '09: Chicago Cubs

The Cubbies have now been in two post seasons in a row. I believe 2009 will be the third. They come back with a team very similar to that of 2008. This time around, they a year of experience further along and a couple years of post season experience gained. Their rotation is one of the best with Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, and Ted Lilly as the top 3. If Rich Harden can ever stay healthy, he could be any team’s number one. Their line-up is packed with studs. Some have called out a decline in Derrek Lee’s ability. But I just see him settling into a solid+ first baseman. Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano are still holding their own. Milton Bradley is a new face on the block. He’ll add to an already sturdy outfield in Kosuke Fukudome and Soriano. The bullpen is perhaps the only question mark because of the loss of Kerry Wood. But overall, the Cubs (my bandwagon team, if I could call it that) are lookin solid.

Highlights: Ryan Dempster broke out as a starter last year and he has the stuff to continue. I doubt that he’ll be able to repeat what he did last year. But he won’t have to if Lilly, Zambrano, and Harden step up.

Question Mark: Carlos Marmol showed us some wicked stuff from the pen last year. But will he be able to close out games. He’ll get a lot of chances and if he doesn’t, Kevin Gregg, who saved 29 for the Marlins last year, is there as a backup.
Key to Success: I think that we all know that the Cubs can succeed in the regular season. Now they have to prove to us that they can do it in the playoffs. They haven’t done that in over 100 years. I believe that all of us fans are over the curses, the scapegoats, and the excuses. So go Cubbies, go!

Prediction: 1st Place

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Predictions '09: St. Louis Cardinals

Tony LaRussa is on the hunt to become the second place all-time winning-est manager. He’s 302 behind John McGraw. If he’s around for a 4 more years, that will most likely happen. Next year, he’ll add around 85-90 wins to that total. The Cardinals are coming off a 4th place finish in the central and are looking to get back in the playoffs. They have a solid rotation and a bunch of veterans as well as youngsters in their top 9. But it will be hard to overcome the free-spending Cubs of the North. LaRussa knows how to manage a club though, so maybe with a little luck (healthy pitchers) and a repeat MVP (Pujols) they might just do that.
Highlights: Pujols, Rick Ankiel, Troy Glaus, and Ryan Ludwick make one of the toughest 3-6 line-up in the league. Not to mention Yadier Molna and Skip Schumaker’s .304 and .302 averages, respectively. Hitting is one thing that the Cards have going for them. Look forward to Albert to keep doing his thing.

Question Mark: The Cardinals picked up shortstop Khalil Greene in hopes that he’ll return to his 2007 form in which he slugged 27 hrs and climbed to emerging star status. Last season, he dropped down the elevator shaft to the underground parking level. St. Louis is hoping he can get at least 20 homers while lifting his average to anything respectable (at least over .250 please).

Key to Success: Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse head the rotation. They’ve proven that they can win a few games. Now lets hope Chris Carpenter can get back to Cy Young form, or at least stay healthy. Because behind these three are two very inexperienced righties. If the top three can stay healthy and put up some quality starts, look forward to a nice little division rivalry between the Bears and Birds.

Prediction: 2nd Place

Predictions '09: Milwaukee Brewers

In 2008 the Brew-Crew battled their way to second place for the second straight year. I find it hard to believe they will 3-peat. A new manager, shaky defense, and a questionable rotation are all concerns. Their bright spots are all in their line-up. From 1-7, they are solid.  Names like, Braun, Fielder, Hart, Hall, Hardy, Weeks, and Cameron all call for respect of the opposing pitcher. But outside of that, they don’t have much going for them. They brought on Trevor Hoffman and his 504 saves to make a rather solid bullpen. I do feel that the Crew are stronger than most of their division opponents.

Highlights: Ryan Braun is only the second player in MLB history with 30 home runs in each of his two first seasons. The other guy, rival Albert Pujols of the Cardinals. If Braun continues the way he’s started, he’ll soon copy Pujols in the way of a MVP trophy.

Question Mark: Yovani Gallardo is the staff ace… With the loss of C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets, Milwaukee is in need of a true ace to head the rotation. Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush are solid at times but outside that, most their hurlers are hot and cold with no control valve.

Key to Success: Chris Capuano had so much going for him at the start of his career. After sitting out all of last year because of injury, he can turn this club around by staying healthy this season and throwing up a few w’s.

Prediction: 3rd Place

Predictions '09: Houston Astros

This club is one of those teams that in the past decade have constantly snuck up on baseball analyzers across the nation. The ‘Stros have a few highlights on their ball club. But overall, its not a team built to win any 2009 championships. Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman are one of the most dominant duos of the NL. Roy Oswalt can be counted on for at least 15 wins. But outside these three, nothing is a for sure deal for Texas’ other team.
Highlights: As said before, if Carlos Lee stays healthy, he is one of the most dominant players in the game. He was on his way to a career year last season when he got hurt in the final quarter of the season. If he and Berkman stay healthy, which isn’t too much to ask, these two can carry the ball club.

Question Mark: The rotation is solid up until the number two spot. Brian Moehler joined the club in 2008 and had a 4.56 era with an 11-8 record. This was decent. But they will need a lot more from him and the rest of the pitchers to contend. Wandy Rodriguez has to be consistend. Brandon Backe’s era has to drop from 6.05. Mike Hampton. Well he has to stay healthy. Really, there isn’t any pressure, so maybe he’ll surprise us and win a few games. He did win 22 with the Astros earlier in his career.

Key to Success: If the Astros are going to contend, all of their mediocre players will have to put up mediocre+ numbers. This includes Kazuo Matsui, Hunter Pence, Miguel Tejada, and Geoff Blum.

Prediction: 4th Place