Predictions '09: Detroit Tigers

Prior to the 2008 season, Detroit made a deal with the Florida Marlins in the off-season that brought in Miguel Cabrera and starting pitcher Dontrelle Willis. Most baseball fans thought that the Tigers were poised to dominate teams with an explosive offense top to bottom. I had no doubt in my mind that they would be in the playoffs. But low and behold, the Tigers finished dead last in the AL Central with a record of 74-88. What happened? Its easy: Detroit forgot that solid pitching wins games. Their starting pitching was horrific. Justin Verlander had a 4.84 ERA in 33 starts, leading some to wonder if his arm is toast after 2 excellent seasons. Dontrelle Willis didn't win a game for them, and had injury problems. Jeremy Bonderman suffered with shoulder issues. The only pitcher who had success was rookie Armando Galarraga, posting a 3.73 ERA in 28 starts. Other than Galaragga, their team pretty much looks the same (except for Pudge Rodriguez being gone). The dynamic offense was inconsistent last year, but everyone can agree that their lineup is still a force to be reckoned with. Brandon Lyon comes in as the new closer, but he posted an ERA above 9.00 with Arizona last year after the allstar break. The rest of the bullpen is pretty bad, which is why Detroit won't be there in October.

Highlights: It took a little bit of time for Miguel Cabrera to figure out AL pitching at the beginning of the season, and his batting average for the year was just under .300 for the first time since 2004. His power numbers didn't suffer though, as he hit 37 long balls and 127 RBIs. Expect him to anchor the lineup with a monsterous year.

Question Mark: Will the starting pitching show up for 2009? At first glance the rotation looks good, filled with some solid names in Verlander, Willis, and Bonderman. But with Bonderman's shoulder, Willis' inconsistency, and Verlander's poor 2008 campaign it doesn't look good. Will Galarraga duplicate his 2008 success in '09?

Keys to Success: For boasting one of the most impressive looking lineups last year, the Tigers were shutout way too many times. The lineup will need to produce consistently to keep them in ball games. The fifth starter will likely be Rick Porcello, the Tigers' first round pick in 2007. They dished out $11 million (WOW) to this kid, and they hope he can be an innings-eater in '09. Watch for this guy.

Prediction: 4th place